Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?
Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?
12
3.5kṀ5502028
51%
chance
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This market resolves YES if, in the future and before 2028, any US government agency spends more than $10 million dollars on hardening electrical systems to protect civilians from effects of an EMP attack or a CME like the Carrington Event.
Spending on hardening only military or police assets doesn't count. Improvements to infrastructure that help to mitigate the problem but aren't proposed explicitly to mitigate EMP or CME events don't count either.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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