Will GPT-5 launch on a Tuesday?
May 31

AI companies including OpenAI seem to launch models on Tuesdays. Will this trend continue? Clearly one of the most important questions in AI forecasting today!

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bought Ṁ10 NO

Is there a trend here I'm missing? This far away from 20% feels like a weird anomaly.

bought Ṁ200 YES

@NevinWetherill they have previously said they launch models on Tuesdays

@StephenMalina Ah, more straightforward than I was expecting.

I wonder if that's hard and fast such that an unexpected 1 day delay would cause them to delay a full week 🤔

Maybe it should be higher than ~50%, maybe even ~90% if they've never broken this trend before on even small models/model updates.

@NevinWetherill yeah to clarify, I haven't confirmed the strength of the trend beyond the tweet, which I now can't find