Will GPT-5 launch on a Tuesday?
33
114
680
May 31
47%
chance

AI companies including OpenAI seem to launch models on Tuesdays. Will this trend continue? Clearly one of the most important questions in AI forecasting today!

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 NO

Is there a trend here I'm missing? This far away from 20% feels like a weird anomaly.

bought Ṁ200 YES

@NevinWetherill they have previously said they launch models on Tuesdays

@StephenMalina Ah, more straightforward than I was expecting.

I wonder if that's hard and fast such that an unexpected 1 day delay would cause them to delay a full week 🤔

Maybe it should be higher than ~50%, maybe even ~90% if they've never broken this trend before on even small models/model updates.

@NevinWetherill yeah to clarify, I haven't confirmed the strength of the trend beyond the tweet, which I now can't find