GPT-5 releases when?

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Dec 31

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This market tests whether month-long buckets work decently for numeric markets. may N/A.

Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If GPT-5 is not released by the time this market closes, it will be resolved to the last bucket.

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bought Ṁ538 YES

@Bayesian If it's not released this year, will you resolve to the last bucket?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 i'll first be sad, and then in my sadness i will resolve the last bucket

I think manifold needs to implement a version of these where we can see the months / dates on the x-axis, instead of decimal numbers

If I compute the culmulative function with these questions:

and then take the derivative (or like piecewise approximation of the derivative using buckets), how well does it match the curve in your question? 🤔

Think there's a discrepancy

LOL