Will GPT-5 launch before 1 January 2025?
Basic
192
78k
2025
44%
chance

Question will resolve yes if a product by openai is launched with the name "GPT-5" before 1 January 2025.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/in-what-month-will-openai-broadly-r

Slightly different condition because it requires broad public release, while this market does not specify the exact condition. I still don't think that accounts for the 10pp difference.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Slightly different name conditions but arbitrage:

https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025

There might not be a GPT-5 at all

predicts NO

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