Resolves to probability.
Is the amount of markets, discussion and betting on AI-related topics in Manifold disproportionate to the actual importance of AI?
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ102 | |
| 2 | Ṁ90 | |
| 3 | Ṁ58 | |
| 4 | Ṁ28 | |
| 5 | Ṁ18 |
People are also trading
Mark here. I'm banned so I'm using another account.
AI is obviously overhyped. Every AI prediction ever made on manifold failed.
All moderatorsof this website are absolute, unironic retards, as proven by the fact they banned the only user who wasn't a retard.
@DerkDicerk banned for ban evasion.
Your main account was only restricted from commenting and creating new markets for 7 days. Although we will now have to reassess the severity of the ban on the main account.
@DavidChee I'm going to evade for a third time to ask you a question. What was the original reason for the ban? The sun thing was because trolls and you can reverse it. What was the actual reason for the ban besides jack and bte losing bets against me?
@MarkIngrahamf56b It had nothing to do with Jack/BTE. The main reason for your ban is that a lot of your comments were spammy in nature and weren't contributing to the discussion. This normally would result in just a warning, but you already had received a couple after your shooting market we N/A'd and the email the week prior.
That is why we chose to escalate it to a one-week restriction from commenting and creating markets. We are still figuring out our moderation and have had a lot of discussion lately regarding it. My biggest priority as community manager is making sure we remain consistent and transparent. Sorry if things have felt unclear.
If you still aren't sure what constitutes as spam and genuinely want to try and be a positive contributor I'd be happy to take some time to go through your comments with you and explain our reasoning.
@DavidChee all of my posts are spam and i hope be permanently banned. But everything i said will come to pass.
AI is overhyped in general, an still more in Manifold. However we don't need this market, resolving to probability doesn't work.
Just bet in the relevant markets according to your perception of Manifold crowd bias.
I wouldn't say, "overhyped," because the purpose of Manifold is to aggregate information on topics that folks within Manifold deem important. I would maybe say, "lots of sloppy thinking," because folks concentrate on winning the Manifold algorithm by creating markets which are the most meaningful to the largest number of participants, which results in a bunch of science fiction and markets set decades in the future, basically popular topics rather than engineering topics. I have created a bunch of markets to try to bridge the gap between popular thinking and engineering / applications:
I voted NO but imo even though AI is super important, the following market is still over hyped:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/5-years-from-now-will-chatgpt-be-se
well you write "disproportionate to the actual importance of AI?" which is why i wouldn't bet YES because it is the most revolutionary thing in the history of humanity. I'd put the internet, personal computing, language, writing, and vehicles as close behind.
Assuming AI was overhyped, this market resolves to probability, so it would resolve to No even if AI was truly overhyped.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?