Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by America?
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Feb 1
19%
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This market will resolve when the current conflict between Israel and Hamas ceases and remains stable for at least 7 days without indication of re-igniting. The market resolves YES if any agreement (cease-fire, peace treaty, surrender terms, etc) which plays a major role in ending the conflict is lead by or organized by the United States. It resolves NO if the war ends (with 7 days stable) in any other way.

As reported by major international news. I will not bet in this market.

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Ceasefires between Israel and Hamas have always been negotiated by countries that are perceived as "Neutral", such as Egypt or Saudi Arabia. I doubt it will be different this time

@Shump Good thought! I wonder how likely that uniqueness would be. Here's another relevant market for that outcome:

How do you define lead/organize?

@oh Broadly. Any U.S. led negotiation talks or other substantial contributions to an agreement which are recognized by international media.

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