Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Question

The market will resolve when the current conflict between Israel and Hamas ends and remains stable for at least 7 days without indication of re-igniting. The market resolves YES if any agreement (cease-fire, peace treaty, surrender terms, etc) which plays a major role in ending the conflict is led or organized by a country in the Middle East region (excluding Israel, as defined by Wikipedia). If many countries are involved, middle eastern countries must have weak majority and a country with leading international credit for the agreement must be middle eastern to resolve YES.

The market resolves NO if the war ends, with 7 days of stability, in any other way.

As reported by a concensus international news. I will not bet in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 60% chance (13 traders, as of Jan 6, 2026).