Will global peak oil production occur before 2029?
Basic
24
1.4k
2030
61%
chance

Resolves YES if total world oil production is lower in 2029 and 2030 from a peak in or before the year 2028, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2028.

Resolves NO if world total oil production is clearly above 2028 levels in 2029 or 2030.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."

from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html

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I'm just going to bet "no" on all these markets because a lot of people have predicted in the past that we should have reached peak oil by now and I think the people voting on these markets mostly look them up because they're overly concerned.

@parhizj interesting and informative blog, thank you for sharing. rates are certainly relevant.

to be clear all these markets are concerning the peak total oil production volume

I copied this market so we can predict which year.
https://manifold.markets/Jono3h/in-what-year-will-peak-oil-producti
I'll send @SpeaksForTrees the mana I get from the initial traders on that market.

"majority consensus among world energy economics experts" is pretty vague. I would change it to use only an objective measure.

@AlexanderTurok Total oil production could decline for many reasons that do not fall under the definition of peak oil (another pandemic for instance). If the objective criteria are met to resolve YES but that majority consensus is vague when the question would close the market will be extended until experts agree that the decline is due to peak oil being reached.

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