If in the years 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032 an 2033 the demand for oil don't surpass the peak register in years before 2028, the market resolves YES, otherwise resolves NO.
Context:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1616137013123776512?t=XHE4g2PViWydffIUFNsY2w&s=19
Jan 19, 11:04pm: Will Peak oil demand happens within the before 2028? → Will peak oil demand happens before 2028?
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@Mqrius hard to tell based on the tweet. Demand don't discriminate the origin of the oil.
@FranklinBaldo Yeah but I'm asking about this market and what resolution criteria you intend to use. It's good to have that clear before it becomes a controversial question.
@Mqrius i know. So... I think any discussion about peak oil has in the background the climate change as the main concern. So you atmosphere captured fuels will be excluded
@FranklinBaldo Cool, makes sense. I think it's still "No" but it does change the probability a bit. (And tbh atmosphere capture probably will never make "crude oil", but it will probably make petrol or lubricant or other kinds of specific oils)
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Franklin Baldo
@elonmusk @financialjuice You can bet about it in this market https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-peak-oil-demand-happens-within?r=RnJhbmtsaW5CYWxkbw
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Franklin Baldo
I created a market. https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-peak-oil-demand-happens-within?r=RnJhbmtsaW5CYWxkbw