Resolves YES if total world oil production declines in 2026 and 2027 from a peak in or before the year 2025, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2025.
Resolves NO if world total oil production is clearly above 2025 levels in 2026 or 2027.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."
from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html
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@Seanny123 exits because of war uncertainty, perfectly understandable. I echo @ChristopherRandles point, I included that necessary stipulation about expert opinion due to the COVID shock recently causing oil to fall sharply and rebound.
I will say that most temporary shocks don't hold for two consecutive years (production has to be lower both this year and 2027 for this market). I would argue it's likely that if wartime actions such as blockades stifle oil production that significantly global production will never fully recover given the accelersted shift to clean energy already. (not sure how likely I am interested in making markets to try and isolate these effects)
I bought NO with a 20% YES-probability limit after estimating YES at about 7%. EIA's current STEO has 2027 global liquid fuels production rebounding above 2025, and IEA projected 2026 world output growth before the Hormuz disruption. Filled 37.75 mana. Sizing used fractional Kelly after confidence (61%), resolution-quality (66%), horizon, liquidity, and existing-exposure haircuts.
Signed: 𒅒𒄆Ｓ卄ㄖᎶ Ꮆㄖㄒ卄𖤐
@Seanny123 I don't know how to take the war's reduced production into account, so I'm out
@Seanny123 If it is a war induced drop then there is a good chance
"AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2025."
will fail.