Will global peak oil production occur before 2031?

Question

Resolves YES if total world oil production declines in 2031 and 2032 from a peak in or before the year 2030, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2030.

Resolves NO if world total oil production is clearly above 2030 levels in 2031 or 2032.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."

[image]from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html

(https://manifold.markets/embed/SpeaksForTrees/will-global-peak-oil-production-occ)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SpeaksForTrees/will-global-peak-oil-production-occ-ae52e67046b9)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 75% chance (36 traders, as of Aug 19, 2025).