Will global peak oil production occur before 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if total world oil production declines in 2026 and 2027 from a peak in or before the year 2025, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2025.

Resolves NO if world total oil production is clearly above 2025 levels in 2026 or 2027.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."

[image]from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 11% chance (30 traders, as of Mar 16, 2026).