Which GOP candidate will come in second in the Iowa Caucuses (Jan 15th)? (M500 subsidy)

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Ṁ4241

resolved Jan 16

100%63%

Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump

34%

Nikki Haley

0.3%

Vivek Ramaswamy

0.5%

Chris Christie

Which republican candidate will get the second-most votes during the 2024 Iowa Caucus?

Trading will close one week before the caucus. The market will resolve to a single candidate after at least 98% of the votes have been reported. I will wait to resolve the market until 100% of votes have been reported if two candidates’ tallies are close enough to be statistically plausible for 2nd place.

I will not vote.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#2024 Republican Primaries

#2024 Primaries

#Iowa Caucuses

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With 95% of the votes counted, Haley still technically has a chance to edge out DeSantis (less than 5% chance). If it isn’t called before I go to sleep, I’ll resolve it first thing in the morning.

@SpaceboyLuke is this by final round vote or delegate count?

@nikki Final round vote

Get your bets in! Poll closes tomorrow at midnight EST.

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