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MANIFOLD
Will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch in September 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ20
Sep 30
59%
chance

NASA announced on April 21, 2026 that Roman is targeting "as soon as early September 2026" for launch, ahead of the agency's previous commitment of no later than May 2027. The telescope will be carried by a SpaceX Falcon Heavy from Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center to the Sun–Earth L2 point.

Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope lifts off from Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center between September 1, 2026 00:00 UTC and September 30, 2026 23:59 UTC, and the Falcon Heavy successfully clears the tower (i.e., a pad abort or on-pad anomaly does not count). Resolves NO if the launch occurs outside that window, is scrubbed past September, or fails to leave the pad. Mission success after liftoff (deployment, L2 insertion, instrument checkout) is not required for YES resolution: this market is about the launch date only.

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