Solar gravitational lens mission launched by 2035?

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2035

20%

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A solar gravitational lens is a hypothetical design which uses the gravity of the sun as a lens for a telescope to image objects outside our solar system. The method could be used to obtain megapixel images of exoplanets.

This market resolves YES if a space mission which intends to take advantage of this design is launched by 2035.

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I remember reading that the receiver would need to be on the order of 600AU to make effective use of solar gravitational lens telescopy? That being the case 2035 seems quite optimistic. I'd wager a circumlunar accelerator is much earlier on the agenda

@Brooster I would make a similar market for whether there would be a "circumlunar accelerator" by 2035 but I don't know what that is. Maybe you could make it yourself?

@BoltonBailey I made a meme for it

@Brooster

Here's the terrascope market as an embed, IMO the distance factor makes the Terrascope one more probable.

A telescope that uses Earth's atmosphere as a lense as opposed to the sun's gravity might be more feasible:

https://youtu.be/jgOTZe07eHA

@JakeToth Great video! I’ll make a market for it if you don’t want to.

predictedNO

@BoltonBailey sure, I wasn't planning on making one :)

@JakeToth https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/terrascope-mission-launched-by-2035

predictedNO

@JakeToth However, the solar lens proposal is more thoroughly worked out (based even on the number of papers)

Keep in mind that the James Webb space telescope took 25 years from conception to launch.

predictedNO

@jonsimon On the other hand, the SGL mission is proposed to be a bunch of smallsats, not one giant telescope, which should reduce the developement time