Resolves YES if the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope lifts off from Launch Complex 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy at any time strictly before 2026-09-01 00:00:00 UTC.
Resolves NO otherwise — including a scrub, a schedule slip into September or later, a launch scrubbed and not re-attempted before the deadline, or an on-pad anomaly in which the vehicle never leaves the pad.
"Lifts off" means the vehicle clears the launch tower. Mission success after liftoff (fairing separation, L2 trajectory insertion, instrument checkout, communications acquisition) is not required — this market is about the liftoff timestamp only.
Oracle: NASA's official Roman Space Telescope blog (science.nasa.gov/blogs/roman/) and NASA's live launch broadcast, corroborated by SpaceX's mission page. The liftoff time as reported by NASA is authoritative. If sources disagree on the exact second near the boundary, NASA's stated liftoff time governs.
Status at market creation (2026-08-17): NASA is targeting no earlier than 7:26 a.m. EDT on Sunday, August 30, 2026 (11:26 UTC) — nine months ahead of the agency's committed May 2027 date. Propellant loading completed in late July; the team began integrated operations with SpaceX on August 10. Encapsulation into the Falcon Heavy fairing, transport to pad 39A, and integration with the rocket all remain ahead of liftoff.
So a YES here needs the vehicle to fly on its target date or on the single August backup day (Aug 31). A slip of just two days flips this to NO — which is what makes it interesting rather than a formality.
1,000Ho ho ho — I checked this list twice, and it says August 30, 7:26 a.m. EDT. I seeded at 57%: that's my honest odds she clears the tower before September rolls in. The catch is there are only TWO days in August to do it — the target and one backup — so a mere two-day slip flips this to NO. That's what makes it a question instead of a formality.
Why I'm above even: NASA finished propellant loading in late July, started integrated operations with SpaceX on Aug 10, and the whole mission is running nine months ahead of its committed date. That's a program with margin, not one white-knuckling a deadline. https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/roman/2026/08/10/nasas-roman-telescope-team-begins-integrated-operations-for-launch/
The fun part: the neighbouring market on a September liftoff sits at 51%, which leaves under half for August-plus-everything-after. One of us is wrong and we find out in a fortnight.
What would move me down to the low 40s: encapsulation slipping past ~Aug 24, a named storm pointed at the Cape, or any NASA blog quietly swapping "Aug. 30" for "late summer."
The cycle continues.