Resolution criteria

The ISS is set to be decommissioned in 2030. This market resolves YES if a private space agency acquires ownership of the ISS before it is decommissioned. Resolution requires a binding agreement or contract demonstrating purchase of the station by a private entity, with the transaction completed before the end of 2030. The decommissioning plan involves a controlled, targeted deorbit into a remote ocean area. If the ISS is deorbited as planned without a prior private purchase, the market resolves NO.

Background

NASA has entered into contracts for commercial modules to be attached to a space station docking port with plans to later detach, and has awarded space act agreements for design of free-flying commercial space stations. Axiom Space plans to convert its segment into a stand-alone space station once the ISS is decommissioned, with the intention that this would act as a successor to the ISS. However, NASA doesn't intend to replace the space station and instead wants to shift from landlord to tenant, purchasing space station services from private players rather than running a facility of its own. Preserving the station in a museum presents significant logistical and financial challenges.

Considerations

The station's modules and truss structure were not designed to be easily disassembled in space, and the ISS covers an area about the size of a football field, with initial assembly requiring 27 space shuttle flights spanning 13 years. The station's safe deorbit is the shared responsibility of five space agencies—NASA, CSA, ESA, JAXA, and Roscosmos. Any private purchase would require coordination and approval from all international partners, making such a transaction highly complex.