Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024?

324

1.1kṀ120k

resolved Dec 10

Resolved

YES

ALL

A chinease company released a sora competitor last week. I think this significantly increases the % that we get access to sora this year. [image]

[tweet]

+30%

The screenshot above is from OpenAI’s page announcing their crazy new AI video model. They say, “If we deploy the model in an OpenAI product,” which makes me wonder if they will deploy it and, if yes, when.

The market resolves YES if the model becomes available to any users, whether paid or free, but won’t count if it’s invite-only.

/Soli/will-openais-ai-video-model-sora-be-0162150a561e

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The market will resolve YES if Sora is released as part of OpenAI's pro subscription.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

A release of any video model with similar quality to Sora (including potential smaller versions like Sora Turbo) will count for a YES resolution

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I think OpenAI is waiting for US election to be over before releasing Sora to the public. The election will be over in November so I expect them to release the model early December.

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@traders sora is out: https://sora.com/ - will resolve yes once i get access or people start posting stuff on twitter

Just a moment...

@Soli

sold Ṁ13,205 YES

@Soli

i think they will release it as part of the pro subscription which would suffice to resolve this market yes (if it happens)

@Soli What if they only release a smaller version (reportedly called Sora Turbo) and not the full model? I think that should resolve NO.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 i personally think any video model with similar quality should count but open for input from @traders

In spirit, I'd consider anything Sora-derived (e.g., "sora-preview", "sora-mini", "sora-turbo") and non-trivial (e.g., not a 2 second GIF-like clip generator or not 10 seconds, but only once per month per subscribed account) to be resolve-worthy of YES.

@Soli I think Only a Sora size variant should count, nut not differently named models or sequels like "sora 2"

@Soli Sure, I guess that's fair. I think being of similar quality should include the ability to generate longer videos - their original demo examples were a minute long.