What will be announced during OpenAI's "12 days of Shipmas?" (add your own)
54
1.4kṀ9161
resolved Dec 25
Resolved
YES
Sora available to use
Resolved
YES
Full o1 model available to use
Resolved
YES
A research advancement specifically focused on safety/alignment
Resolved
NO
GPT-5
Resolved
NO
GPT-4.5
Resolved
NO
New output modalities besides text, images, audio, or video (ex: direct control of robotic actuators, weather predictions)
Resolved
NO
New input modalities besides text, images, audio, or video (ex: DNA sequences, 3D point clouds)
Resolved
NO
Updates to DALL-E
Resolved
NO
Computer use a la Anthropic
Resolved
NO
>=1 second per second video generation
Resolved
NO
An advancement in robotics
Resolved
NO
AI-rendered video game (see my recent market for details)
Resolved
NO
An AI with an original name we haven't heard before (not Sora, o1, Orion, anything with GPT in it, etc.)
Resolved
NO
New small model (less than $1 per MToken)

OpenAI will be announcing something every day for the next 12 days. What will be announced?

https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/4/24312352/openai-sora-o1-reasoning-12-days-shipmas

"Available to use" means available to some members of the public, not just to private alpha testers, but not necessarily to all free users either.

I'm sure there will be no controversy about the resolution of any of these markets 🤞 if you add your own, you're responsible for determining resolution

  • Update 2024-19-12 (PST): - Announcements about models that can only read data from windows but cannot perform actions or use the whole computer do not count as valid announcements for this market (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2024-20-12 (PST): - o3 and similar names that are successors to o1 will not be considered original names (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2024-20-12 (PST): - Names following the o_ naming scheme (like o3) will not be considered original names since they follow an existing pattern, similar to how GPT-5 is not considered original (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2024-20-12 (PST): - The deliberative alignment technique described at openai.com/index/deliberative-alignment/ will be considered a research advancement specifically focused on safety/alignment, separate from the fact that access is being given for safety/alignment reasons (AI summary of creator comment)

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