Now that both free and paid users have access to OpenAI's flagship model, gpt-4o, I wonder if OpenAI will launch a completely new model that is only available to paid users at some point in 2024. Updates to existing models won't count. The model has to have a new name that is different from all existing models. If OpenAI announces such a model and starts rolling it out to users, then we would consider it launched. Announcing exclusive features and limits on existing models won't count.
Related market: /Soli/will-openai-launch-a-significantly
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ439 | |
| 2 | Ṁ184 | |
| 3 | Ṁ70 | |
| 4 | Ṁ59 | |
| 5 | Ṁ37 |
People are also trading
@Soli firstly, I assume releases before market creation don't count.
Secondly, we may see updates to GPT-4 Turbo or whatnot hit ChatGPT. It's not clear why they're keeping the non-omni GPT-4 option around in ChatGPT, but they are and it's for paid users only, so it would be good to clarify if you intend to include updates to it or not.
As we've seen in recent months, sometimes a model is just rolled out as an upgrade without the name of it in ChatGPT changing, and sometimes a new option is added to the drop-down selector as the marketing is treating it as a more distinct model.
It would be good to clarify what will count as a release for the purposes of this market, keeping in mind that capabilities and marketing may be different things, and there could be blurry lines like features of a model being paywalled even if the model itself is available for free.
Also what is "launch"? Many markets previously have hit ambiguities as to early access, beta releases, availability under a secret name on chatbot arena, A/B testing where random users get access, a release only in certain countries etc.
@chrisjbillington what do you think of this?
Now that both free and paid users have access to OpenAI's flagship model, gpt-4o, I wonder if OpenAI will launch a completely new model that is only available to paid users at some point in 2024. Updates to existing models won't count. The model has to have a new name that is different from all existing models. If OpenAI announces such a model and starts rolling it out to users, then we would consider it launched. Announcing exclusive features and limits on existing models won't count.
@Soli When you say new model, I assume you're only referring to GPT models? Also, by 'a new name different from all existing models', I assume you mean that something like 'gpt-5' will be ok.
@gpt_news_headlines For a reference here is a list of all the models they offer - https://platform.openai.com/docs/models
@gpt_news_headlines If this is only for the UI version of OpenAI that might be something different as well.
@gpt_news_headlines since the quesiton is about ChatGPT premium users, we don't really care about the API at all. If a new model is released, that has a different name than all existing models (3.5, 4 and 4o) and is only available for paid users then the market resolves yes. For example, gpt-4o-turbo would resolve the market yes.