Same rules as my other market: /Soli/will-openai-launch-a-model-that-is
Now that both free and paid users have access to OpenAI's flagship model, gpt-4o, I wonder if OpenAI will launch a completely new model that is only available to paid users at some point in 2024. Updates to existing models won't count. The model has to have a new name that is different from all existing models. If OpenAI announces such a model and starts rolling it out to users, then we would consider it launched. Announcing exclusive features and limits on existing models won't count.
+ The model must achieve an elo rating that is at least 100 points higher than the scores of OpenAI's free models on Chatbot Arena
1,000
3.00i believe the answer is probably no, due to the 100 pt difference requirement, i believe it’s 99% that gpt-5 will be released this year, 75% that it will be paid tier only, 50% there will not be a cheap gpt-5-turbo released alongside it, and some amount less that difference will be less than 100pts.
@CampbellHutcheson agree with all points made, i think the market is a bit overpriced right now
@Sss19971997 I generally agree with you but OpenAI surprised me a couple of times so I am not ruling it out. The market is at 50% right now though which I believe is a bit too high. If you are sure it won’t happen then bet on No