Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
Dec 31

Same rules as my other market: /Soli/will-openai-launch-a-model-that-is

Now that both free and paid users have access to OpenAI's flagship model, gpt-4o, I wonder if OpenAI will launch a completely new model that is only available to paid users at some point in 2024. Updates to existing models won't count. The model has to have a new name that is different from all existing models. If OpenAI announces such a model and starts rolling it out to users, then we would consider it launched. Announcing exclusive features and limits on existing models won't count.

+ The model must achieve an elo rating that is at least 100 points higher than the scores of OpenAI's free models on Chatbot Arena

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i believe the answer is probably no, due to the 100 pt difference requirement, i believe it’s 99% that gpt-5 will be released this year, 75% that it will be paid tier only, 50% there will not be a cheap gpt-5-turbo released alongside it, and some amount less that difference will be less than 100pts.

There is no way GPT-5 is 100 better than GPT-4o.

Not that it would not be significantly smarter, but evaluation on Lmsys has saturated. Most people do not ask hard enough problems distinguishing between the current frontier and next-generation models.

@Sss19971997 I generally agree with you but OpenAI surprised me a couple of times so I am not ruling it out. The market is at 50% right now though which I believe is a bit too high. If you are sure it won’t happen then bet on No

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