Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
Plus
29
Ṁ4245resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
I was browing Twitter and I saw a post by Karpathy postively talking about ChatBot Arena which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2 and 3. I wonder if any opensource model will take any of these positions at the end of 2024. I will resolve as yes if this is the case ar the end of 2024
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@HanchiSun good observation I already have 5 markets on ChatBot Arena and would hate to spam everyone on here. Check them out here and I will create another one where duplicates are not allowed but I just need to find a good definition of what constitues a duplicate.
https://manifold.markets/dashboard/chatbot-arena-battle-of-the-llms?r=U29saQ
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025?
60% chance
Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena in 2025?
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will China have a model in the top 10 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena on March 1, 2025?
48% chance
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
18% chance
Will the best AI model according to the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard be using Mixture-of-Depths, at the end of 2025?
37% chance
Until what date will an Google model hold the top position in the Chatbot Arena? (>=week)
Will a RWKV-family model take place in the top-10 of LMSYS Chatbot Arena by the end of 2024?
5% chance