Which party will win the most seats in Thailand’s election? @mods, resolve n/a
16
150Ṁ60k
Nov 11
0%
พลังประชารัฐ - n/a - final seats, note general vote seats
2%
ประชาธิปัตย์ - n/a - CORRECT ANSWER - final seats, note general vote seats
37%
ภูมิใจไทย - n/a - final seats, note general vote seats
57%
Move Forward successor - n/a - final seats, note general vote seats
4%
เพื่อไทย Thai Party - n/a - final seats, note general vote seats
0%
Other

Please use this page: https://manifold.markets/Solarshine/which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-52RlUP9AZA


Which party will win the most in Thailand’s next general election?

Market type: Multiple choice (single winner)

(outdated)

  • Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution may be based on final parliamentary bloc alignment, not initial election results.

    • The market may resolve based on which party controls the most seats after MPs have organized into parliamentary blocs, not based on election-night results or initial party labels

    • If MPs elected under one party label later join or align with another party's parliamentary bloc, they will be counted toward that bloc for resolution purposes

    • This accounts for post-election coalition formation and parliamentary reorganization that can change which party effectively holds the most power

    • Final seat counts and parliamentary alignment will be used as the resolution metric, not vote share percentages or initial seat classifications

  • https://manifold.markets/Solarshine/which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-52RlUP9AZA

  • Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market planned to be resolved based on most seats won in the general vote using party-list proportional representation methodology

  • Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that due to ambiguity in vote-to-seat allocation formulas, this market may be left unresolved or the creator may use final seat counts (after parliamentary organization) as the resolution method rather than preliminary vote tallies.

The creator is suggesting traders consider the linked market about final seat counts as potentially more reliable: https://manifold.markets/Solarshine/which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-52RlUP9AZA

  • Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Potential resolution ambiguity identified: If the Pheu Thai Party claims victory based on party-list vote data, but this differs from the final certified seat allocation, there may be no clear way to resolve this market under current rules. This could lead to disputed outcomes.

In short: The prompt I created was intended to describe this market was to be based on party general vote outcomes (number of party seats). However, the AI introduced additional, unrelated context, which made it unclear which data source should be considered authoritative for market resolution. AI tends to add all the seats - hard to create solely party vote description.

This created a contradiction between my original intention - party vote results - and the generated description, which I initially trusted the AI to produce. As a result, it became difficult to determine whether the oracle should rely on party vote totals or the alternative framing introduced in the text. Description referred to both simultaneously.

In hindsight, the AI was not incorrect in rely on both seats sources. In Thailand, party vote outcomes are not fully transparent or really clear, as final party seat allocation is often shaped by elite consensus and post-election arrangements rather than raw vote counts (that always have mistakes, problems or incorrectness).

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@mods , respectfully request that this market be resolved in accordance with the creator’s request. This market is a duplicate and was misleading in its initial wording.

The creator is asking to resolve this market as N/A and to focus activity on the other market, which has a clearer description and the identical purpose.

Please free up the funds accordingly. Thank you.

I am agree to settle up with @Jack for his lost profits up to 1000 MANA

And creator indicated they are going to gift @Jack 800 MANA.

I believe he is the only disputer here

@1bets this is not true. Stop lying, mods ignore. They are trying to steal 17k mana from manifold.

@Jack1 you are the only disputer here, noone else is objecting

I already was fined 10k just for transfer of my hardly earned mana to support you , that is unintentionally created rainy"s account.

Support you account was deleted.

Please unban Rainy and waive the huge fine

@Jack1 , bet NO at this market https://manifold.markets/rainydays/will-1bets-successfully-complete-da-A825QtSA5C - challenge is really hard, and I bet YES

You may win 8000 MANA on no, even if I try my best.

I don't have MANA now , bet all on me..

@1bets you are rainy day records as well. You will just resolve the market how it suits you. You are a cheat. And that 20k mana the market was created with is fraudulent.

@Jack1 I guarantee you that I will not to cheat there.

Today I ran 1 km, at night was doing push ups.. But paperwork.. that's hard

@1bets delete all your alts

When information about potential early elections first appeared, the rush to initialize this market did not allow sufficient time to clearly define the description and resolution requirements.

In Thailand, the initial popular vote can indicate strong support for a particular party, but the final number of parliamentary seats may differ once the full allocation process is completed. This is because seat distribution is not determined solely by the nationwide popular vote, but also depends on the electoral system and counting rules.

My initial intention was to count seats corresponding to the general (popular) vote outcome. However, it later became clear that even this criterion is ambiguous, as the final number of seats is not purely or mechanically derived from the popular vote alone.

@Solarshine I don’t read ai responses

@Jack1 Potential issue: If the Pheu Thai Party (เพื่อไทย) were to claim victory based on the party-list vote of the data source, and this claim differed from the combined final certified seat allocation,

there would be no clear or unambiguous way to resolve the outcome under this market’s current rules.

In such a scenario, some participants (e.g., Jack, others ) would lose while others would dispute the result, leading to political and resolution ambiguity rather than a clean determination of the election winner.

@Solarshine No. Lies. You are trying to cheat the site out of mana by sending the deleted account into negative balance and 1$bets gets his losses back.

@Jack1 Do you prefer to wait until the election and deal with whatever outcome emerges (which is unlikely to be straightforward), especially given that the total number of voters in the northern provinces is uncertain and likely to cause significant confusion, or would you rather free up your MANA now and accept an 800 MANA goodwill gesture?

@Solarshine Wait. There’s no confusion

@Jack1 I may amplify the description for this to be the party-vote only - sharply. Do you agree?

@Solarshine No. The question is for who wins the most seats, party and constituency combined.

@Jack1 exactly that is a confusion in this market. I was listening to Pheu Thai Party and they may definitely win the popular vote / party vote seats

@Solarshine The prompt I created was intended to describe this market was to be based on party general vote outcomes (number of party seats). However, the AI introduced additional, unrelated context, which made it unclear which data source should be considered authoritative for market resolution. AI tends to add all the seats - hard to create solely party vote description.

This created a contradiction between my original intention - party vote results - and the generated description, which I initially trusted the AI to produce. As a result, it became difficult to determine whether the oracle should rely on party vote totals or the alternative framing introduced in the text. Description referred to both simultaneously.

In hindsight, the AI was not incorrect in rely on both seats sources. In Thailand, party vote outcomes are not fully transparent or really clear, as final party seat allocation is often shaped by elite consensus and post-election arrangements rather than raw vote counts (that always have mistakes, problems or incorrectness).

we rely on total seats now

@Jack1 please explain, how do you understand it

@Solarshine example from last election. We take Total seats (party + constituency seats)

Why did you delete the support you account?

There was nothing confusing about the Market, it was for who won the most seats. Stop scamming the site and its users.

@mods Do not n/a this market. These guys are just trying to scam you out of mana.

Support you is the same person as Sunny, 1$bets and rainy day records. Support you sold out of their 17k profit, sent it to Rainy day records (through making bad bets on other markets) and deleted their account. If this market is n/a, support you would go into -17k mana, and this group of alts would have made 17k mana out of nothing. This is cheating.

@Jack1 ✔️ and R e is this person too.

@Jack1 Pureprofit, El Paso, life hack, my garden and Anthony are also this person too. It’s hard to believe a site allows this to occur.

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