[Climate Change] How much global warming will we have by the end of 2024? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2025

[Climate Change] How much global warming will we have by the end of 2024?

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How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2024 be according to: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

At time of market creation warming amount is 0.85 °C.

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Warmest on record on this scale is 1.02

Stevenbought Ṁ10 of LOWER

The linked data (including the current 0.85 °C) is relative to 1951-1980, not relative to 1880, so it's worth clarifying which baseline will be used for this question.

@StevenK Ah sorry, will be using the link.

Stevenbought Ṁ10 of LOWER

I think you should edit this:

How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2024 be than the average global temperature in 1880?

to say something different, because the link is not relative to 1880.

SneakySlyis predicting LOWER at 24%

@StevenK Edited to specify I am just straight up going off of the link.

SneakySly https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

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