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Will there be scientifically confirmed evidence of rapid human biological adaptation to climate change, challenging our current understanding of evolutionary timelines, by the end of the 21st century?
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2100, there is a peer-reviewed study published in a reputable scientific journal that demonstrates human biological adaptation directly attributable to climate change, in a manner that suggests faster-than-expected evolutionary processes. Examples could include changes in body temperature regulation, skin pigmentation, or other genetic or physiological adaptations.
The market will also resolve to "Yes" if widespread and undeniable physical changes in human populations are observed and widely recognized as a direct result of climate change adaptation, even if not fully captured in a single peer-reviewed study.
These findings must significantly challenge or expand our current understanding of the pace at which evolution can occur under environmental pressure.
If neither of these conditions is met by December 31, 2100, the market will resolve to "No."