By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
54
230
1k
2025
25%
chance

This market seeks to predict the ability to use AI to generate meaningful parts of an impressive game.

We are not concerned with precision down to the level of generating a good Settings menu, but trying to take a qualitative look at how relevant overall the AI is.

Individual examples that would cause this market to resolve YES:
- All (or the overwhelming majority) of assets are AI generated -> YES
- All game mechanics are AI generated -> YES
- All the story / dialogue elements are AI generated in a visual novel -> YES

At the end of 2026 if this market closes and no game has met the critera, this market will resolve NO.

FAQ:

  • What counts as a game?

    I am fleshing out two main requirements:
    1. It must be listed as a game for sale on Steam, Epic, game consoles, or equivalent online game storefronts.
    2. There must be tangible game rules, with explicit victory and loss states.
    (Open ended chat sandboxes are not the interesting question, as we basically already have those.)

  • What if the assets are AI-generated but human-edited?

    For the purposes of this market this will NOT count.



Continuing the trend of these markets:

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

I have added a new related market:

bought Ṁ50 of NO

"What if the assets are AI-generated but human-edited?

For the purposes of this market this will NOT count. "

Makes this an almost impossible sell

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Certainly worried that a game like this could easily make those revenue numbers while still taking deep profit losses. So, I think market hype by dumb money will prove me wrong, considering what we saw with NFT games, but $1 million is still a high bar even for raw revenue and I'm moderately satisfied that the market requirements, if held rigorously, will give NO an honest chance.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

As a game dev I'm not happy about this, and am actually worried about it

predicts YES

What about a game (like candy crush) with in-app purchases on the app store or play store?

@MaxBittker Technically nothing here disallows in-app purchases.

predicts YES

@SneakySly would you be so kind as to sharpen where you would draw the line between App and Toy? I know this is a perennial & boring distinction, just would appreciate more color on your definition for the sake of this market.

(AI dungeon is listed as an Adventure Game according to apple / the developer)

@MaxBittker AI Dungeon is definitely not a game for this market.

Although a truly good AI DM is an interesting market in itself, these markets aren't looking for that. It is more about getting at the technology of something like Stable Diffusion for game dev.

I will be pretty permissive here, but we need tangible game structure, rules, end states, and the main method of interaction should not be through typing text into a chat client.

predicts YES

@SneakySly Thanks! Unfortunately it seems very likely that "overwhelming majority of assets" will be tricky to discern unambiguously when it's time to potentially resolve this.

Oh well! I trust your judgement and it's a fun market : )

I may comment with some more examples that are <$1MM revenue for your judgement as they crop up this year, as that's a depressurized way to establish the boundary

@MaxBittker Great idea!

predicts YES

@SneakySly
WDYT:
Arrowmancer: https://apps.apple.com/app/apple-store/id1530311867

"Are all the characters really drawn by an AI?"

Yes! The portraits you see are not remixed parts drawn by human artists, but faces born from the imagination of an inhuman creator.

We trained a machine learning algorithm to draw independently of guidance from humans.

@MaxBittker Definitely a game.

Seems to use AI drawn character portraits, but every other aspect of the game is not AI generated. Is that accurate?

After consulting with others, I have updated with a FAQ to help to remove ambiguity.

what feature of this question disqualifies novelai, if novelai should reach $1m revenue? does anything disqualify it?

@L Novelai is not a game.

@SneakySly What feature makes it not a game? how would I identify whether something similar to novelai was a game?

predicts YES

@L One option is "it's a game if it's on Steam, Epic or another online storefront, or if it's on a console, and it is claimed to be a game." Of course, this would cut out AI Dungeon and the like.

@AaronKaufman That is reasonable. AI Dungeon is more of a toy in my view, not actually a game anyway.