Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?

115

1.1kṀ15k

Dec 31

14%

chance

ALL

Elon Musk has expressed intention to create a new political party

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930685402631053403?s=46&t=mr67c6cgUP2ic11sukpB0g

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially establishes a new political party in the United States by December 31, 2025. For the purpose of this market, a political party is defined an organization that coordinates candidates to compete in American elections and doesn’t require governmental recognition.

Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The criterion 'Elon Musk officially establishes a new political party' will be met if Elon Musk is an official founding member of such a party, even if he is not the sole or primary person responsible for its establishment.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

He will but it'll be so obviously pathetic even to him that he'll back off quickly after pumping it full of cash.

bought Ṁ50 NO

No, because there is no way any new party will get the 30+% of the vote it'd need to win. The vast majority of people always vote the same way for a whole lifetime.

@OliverMattos The party doesn't need to have a decent chance of winning anything for Elon to create it. It's very easy to create parties, and to run people in elections, especially local elections.

@pietrokc Yeah, plus, as a third party, you don't necessarily have to get anyone elected to attempt to push the party towards your goals. You just have to be enough of a threat that they have to try and court your supporters.