Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?

339

1.1kṀ66k

Dec 31

chance

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Elon Musk has expressed intention to create a new political party

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930685402631053403?s=46&t=mr67c6cgUP2ic11sukpB0g

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially establishes a new political party in the United States by December 31, 2025. For the purpose of this market, a political party is defined an organization that coordinates candidates to compete in American elections and doesn’t require governmental recognition.

Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The criterion 'Elon Musk officially establishes a new political party' will be met if Elon Musk is an official founding member of such a party, even if he is not the sole or primary person responsible for its establishment.

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He walked back his walkback even further. I'm no armchair psychologist but this seems like it was a classic case of hypomania.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PaL38q9a4e8Bzsh3S/elon-musk-may-be-transitioning-to-bipolar-type-i

He deleted his Epstein tweet yet his tweets announcing a new political party are still live.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1931112942495523014

IMO way underpriced currently but not willing to stake tons of my mana on Elon markets since I nearly lost that crazy Tesla Stock price one lol.

opened a Ṁ6,969 NO at 22% order

@WillJevons well whatever you're willing to stake, i put a limit up near market price, fill however much you'd like!

bought Ṁ200 YES

https://x.com/PartyOfUSA

@JDVance This is just some random account

bought Ṁ50 NO

Yep looks like he's turning back already. He also deleted his Epstein tweet.

sold Ṁ49 YES

@Damin so glad I saw this omg

bought Ṁ69 YES

Whatever, I'm ready to lose money on this. I don't understand why one would doubt that Elon Musk would do this, but I also don't know anything about how one starts a party!

@Clue The two party system has been in the US for 200 years. Starting a party would require a lot of spending to get voters with a figure like Elon Musk, who 65% of Americans don't like in general, let alone going as president.

well he seems to at least not be backing down

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1931111047408369863

bought Ṁ1 YES

Follow me back on Twitter, Slazac.

bought Ṁ50 YES

He will but it'll be so obviously pathetic even to him that he'll back off quickly after pumping it full of cash.

bought Ṁ50 NO

No, because there is no way any new party will get the 30+% of the vote it'd need to win. The vast majority of people always vote the same way for a whole lifetime.

@OliverMattos The party doesn't need to have a decent chance of winning anything for Elon to create it. It's very easy to create parties, and to run people in elections, especially local elections.

@pietrokc Yeah, plus, as a third party, you don't necessarily have to get anyone elected to attempt to push the party towards your goals. You just have to be enough of a threat that they have to try and court your supporters.