In what order will astronauts bounce around on these solar system bodies?
In what order will astronauts bounce around on these solar system bodies?
3
150Ṁ217Jan 1
94%
Phobos
85%
Deimos
83%
Mars
71%
Ceres
59%
Vesta
59%
Ganymede
59%
Callisto
59%
Enceladus
59%
Titan
50%
Europa
50%
Your Mom
31%
Venus
27%
Triton
10%
Mercury
3%
Io
Market resolves EOY by percentage category.
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Yeah but which percentage? Is earlier a higher or lower percentage? My current bets are assuming it's lower like in the linked market
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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