I think moving to SF would be cool now that Manifold has an office there, but seems unlikely. But maybe someone knows a way I would be eligible for one (if you do bet Yes and let me know by commenting, if someone actually gives me relevant advice that leads to a YES resolution I'll give you 50,000 mana)
I'm reasonably sure I am not eligible for an h1b1 visa as I never completed my BSc degree and being so young I don't have enough of the so-called "equivalent work experience" to a degree.
I can't get a L1 visa because Manifold Markets doesn't have a UK entity set up so I am currently contracted and so I am not eligible to be transferred.
I know of some other streamers/pro esports players who can get O-1 visa relatively easily. I would have likely been eligible for this in the past, but probably wouldn't be now.
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@firstuserhere they appear to be in talks with a specific lawyer, and are ready to send money to them in the next couple days. They are saying 3 months to get everything ready though, plus 2-20 weeks for approval (2 if pay for fast track, up to 20 if not) after they get everything ready/submitted.
If this market was "Will I get approved for a US work Visa by end of Q1 2023", it'd be much more interesting :P
Based on: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/David-Visa-a6b53c2d73bd4a489f576f7069489f84
Lawyer gave me a rate of ~60% if I applied for an O1 rn without doing anything extra, but there are some things that seem fairly feasible that I could do over the next couple of months to increase it to 90%+.
Not betting the market too high though, because also have to have Manifold founders agree that the cost is reasonable.
@DavidChee (and if an O1 fails I think I would have a very high success rate of applying for an E2 visa, but probably wouldn't do that this year as it requires an investment of ~$60k from myself into my business I would set up)