29
324
530
2025
84%
chance

Will SpaceX Achieve 120 Successful launches in 2024?

  • Resolves To All Successful Launches Of All Variants Of Launch Vehicles On The Official Flight Manifest Page.

  • SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST

  • Launches Must Occur During The Beginning of January 1st 2024 12am ET (5am UTC) - December 31st 11:59pm ET (4:59 am UTC)

  • LAUNCH COUNT

    • January: 10

    • February: 9

    • March: 13

    • April: TBD

    • May: TBD

    • June: TBD

    • July: TBD

    • August: TBD

    • September: TBD

    • October: TBD

    • November: TBD

    • December: TBD

    • TOTAL: 32


NOTES:

CLARIFICATIONS:

  • 1/06/2023: On the manifest you will see 3 colors: Green is Successful, Orange is Partial Failure, Red is Failure.


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@traders I made a new copy of this market since SirCryptomind didn't want to manage his markets anymore:

/Eliza/will-spacex-achieve-120-successful-10f7866a143b

?

SpaceX Stacks Ship 28 on Booster 10


To confirm, this market does not require all launches to be successful right? Just 120 successes regardless of failure count.

Does success mean primary objective, or also secondary objectives? Eg would a case where payload is deployed but booster is unexpectedly lost count as a success?

@TheoSpears It will show on the manifest:
Green is Successful
Orange is Partial Failure
Red is Failure

Added
CLARIFICATIONS:

  • 1/06/2023: On the manifest you will see 3 colors: Green is Successful, Orange is Partial Failure, Red is Failure.

How many were launched in 2023?

@EstMtz Added it to the description.

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