California will experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by July 18, 2025?
19
100Ṁ1592Jul 18
1.4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market predicts whether California will experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by July 18, 2025. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) provides real-time earthquake data, which will be used to resolve this market. USGS Earthquake Map
Update 2025-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Geographic Scope Update:
Only earthquakes occurring within the official boundaries of the U.S. state of California will be considered.
Earthquakes in Baja California will not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Magnitude 6.0+ earthquake in Southern California before August 5, 2025
2% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?
8% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
9% chance
Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2025?
Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2026? (May 5)
55% chance
Will the number of >M6.0 earthquakes double in any 2 week period in 2025?
61% chance
Will a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8.5 or greater occur in the Pacific Ring of Fire before the end of 2025?
14% chance
The next 6.0 quake in CA happens in an even month
49% chance
Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
47% chance
Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?
18% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Magnitude 6.0+ earthquake in Southern California before August 5, 2025
2% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?
8% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
9% chance
Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2025?
Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2026? (May 5)
55% chance
Will the number of >M6.0 earthquakes double in any 2 week period in 2025?
61% chance
Will a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8.5 or greater occur in the Pacific Ring of Fire before the end of 2025?
14% chance
The next 6.0 quake in CA happens in an even month
49% chance
Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
47% chance
Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?
18% chance