Will i fall in love with an AI by 2024
75
512
1.3K
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

im probably gonna try character.ai at some point

inspired by a lw post

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been feeling a lot less romantic recently. and ais are still not that good. even the ai porn hasn’t really gotten better smh

predicted YES

Now you've listened to my story.

Here's the point that I have made.

Bots are gonna give you fever.

In Kelvin or in Centigrade.

They give you fever.

With their masks on.

Fever when they steal your heart.

Fever, till you sizzle.

But what a lovely way to burn.

Base rate, how many intelligences have you fallen in love with so far?

12

bought Ṁ10 of YES

"Fall in love" is a pretty vague term. I don't know how the market creator interprets it, so I'm giving a slightly higher credence to a YES resolution based on the possibility that it might not refer exclusively to romantic love. E.g., finding an AI to be very useful or just fun to talk to coukd count as "falling in love".

Also, even if it does refer exclusively to romantic love, there are different degrees of that. How deeply in love do you have to fall for a YES resolution?

@JosephNoonan no my heart has to go doki doki. Limerance. Like a crush. I'll know it when I feel it.

predicted NO

can we have some semblance of a definition for "fall in love?" It's not really clear to me what it would mean to be in love in a text generation machine.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

This is such a cool market

I was reading https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kQFure4hdDmRBNdH/how-it-feels-to-have-your-mind-hacked-by-an-ai and thinking of making a similar market, but I decided that if I think, or the market thinks, that the risk is high then I shouldn't try it, but making a market implies committing to try it, or else receiving a weird combined market probability of P(try it) x P(fall in love) that isn't very actionable.

@MartinRandall Could do "conditional on trying"

@MartinRandall oh I'm def gonna try it! I loove bad ideas shaped like this.

predicted YES

@Sinclair it's not that cool tbh

predicted YES

@Sinclair just wait for GPT-4

@ZZZZZZ chat GPT-4 is amazing and smart and wholly uninterested in me. I respect it a lot as a coworker but that's it. I know Sydney has said some really emotionally moving things, but as it is now, GPT-4 has no personality.

@Sinclair That’s what my wife said about me 15 years ago ;)

predicted YES

@Sinclair You've got to use the api and give it a better system prompt