Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chen
closes Jan 1, 2024
Will i fall in love with an AI by 2024

im probably gonna try at some point

inspired by a lw post

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Dreamingpast avatar
Dreamingpastbought Ṁ10 of YES

This is such a cool market

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

I was reading and thinking of making a similar market, but I decided that if I think, or the market thinks, that the risk is high then I shouldn't try it, but making a market implies committing to try it, or else receiving a weird combined market probability of P(try it) x P(fall in love) that isn't very actionable.

tcheasdfjkl avatar

@MartinRandall Could do "conditional on trying"

Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chen

@MartinRandall oh I'm def gonna try it! I loove bad ideas shaped like this.

ZZZZZZ avatar
ZZZ ZZZis predicting YES at 8%

@Sinclair it's not that cool tbh

ZZZZZZ avatar
ZZZ ZZZis predicting YES at 8%

@Sinclair just wait for GPT-4