Resolution Criteria:
Prolonged limbo via security delays : The anticipated verdict slips past 2026
Immunity law passed (retroactive immunity)
Criteria: The Knesset passes and enacts a law specifically granting immunity to Netanyahu, either prospectively or retroactively, after his trial began, with effective date allowing dismissal of his current charges.
Proof needed:
Text of law explicitly states immunity covering Netanyahu’s ongoing indictments.
Signed by President, not simply proposed or debated.
Not immediately struck down by Supreme Court
Attorney General is removed, sidelined, or resigns
Criteria for “Yes” outcome:Official end to Gali Baharav-Miara’s tenure in any of the following ways:
Formal dismissal by the ministerial committee and cabinet, with or without High Court review.
Voluntary resignation from office — even without formal firing.
Legislative or judicial changes that strip her of functional authority (i.e., she remains in title only, unable to exercise duties).
Proof required:
Public announcement or official record confirming TBD:
She resigned, or
Committee and cabinet voted to dismiss her (even provisionally), or
The High Court ruled that the dismissal process is lawful, or
New legislation/or judicial ruling strips her powers.
Major charges dropped via plea deal or prosecution retreat
Criteria: The prosecution and Netanyahu reach a publicly declared plea agreement or the AG formally withdraws key charges (especially in Case 4000 or equivalent bribery/fraud counts).
Proof needed:
Official filing confirming plea deal or dropped charges.
Netanyahu pleads guilty to lesser count(s) or admits to modified charges.
Court approves amended indictment or dismissal
Trial canceled due to Trump pressure.
A credible media consensus (from at least 3 reputable international or Israeli outlets) reports that Trump’s or U.S. diplomatic pressure was a significant contributing factor to the decision.This can include claims that:
Trump-linked pressure created political risk to proceed with the trial;
U.S. threats (e.g. military aid leverage, diplomatic fallout) were considered;
Israeli officials acted in a way consistent with aligning judicial outcomes to U.S. preferences.