Which of the following scenarios is likely to occur regarding Netanyahu’s trial?
5
1kṀ230
2026
65%
Prolonged limbo via security delays
50%
Attorney General is removed, sidelined, or resigns
48%
Major charges dropped via plea/deal
47%
Immunity law passed
38%
Trial canceled due to Trump pressure

Resolution Criteria:

  1. Prolonged limbo via security delays : The anticipated verdict slips past 2026

  1. Immunity law passed (retroactive immunity)

    Criteria: The Knesset passes and enacts a law specifically granting immunity to Netanyahu, either prospectively or retroactively, after his trial began, with effective date allowing dismissal of his current charges.

    Proof needed:

    • Text of law explicitly states immunity covering Netanyahu’s ongoing indictments.

    • Signed by President, not simply proposed or debated.

    • Not immediately struck down by Supreme Court

  2. Attorney General is removed, sidelined, or resigns
    Criteria for “Yes” outcome:

    Official end to Gali Baharav-Miara’s tenure in any of the following ways:

    • Formal dismissal by the ministerial committee and cabinet, with or without High Court review.

    • Voluntary resignation from office — even without formal firing.

    • Legislative or judicial changes that strip her of functional authority (i.e., she remains in title only, unable to exercise duties).

    Proof required:

    Public announcement or official record confirming TBD:

    • She resigned, or

    • Committee and cabinet voted to dismiss her (even provisionally), or

    • The High Court ruled that the dismissal process is lawful, or

    • New legislation/or judicial ruling strips her powers.

  3. Major charges dropped via plea deal or prosecution retreat

    Criteria: The prosecution and Netanyahu reach a publicly declared plea agreement or the AG formally withdraws key charges (especially in Case 4000 or equivalent bribery/fraud counts).

    Proof needed:

    • Official filing confirming plea deal or dropped charges.

    • Netanyahu pleads guilty to lesser count(s) or admits to modified charges.

    • Court approves amended indictment or dismissal

  4. Trial canceled due to Trump pressure.
    A credible media consensus (from at least 3 reputable international or Israeli outlets) reports that Trump’s or U.S. diplomatic pressure was a significant contributing factor to the decision.

    This can include claims that:

    • Trump-linked pressure created political risk to proceed with the trial;

    • U.S. threats (e.g. military aid leverage, diplomatic fallout) were considered;

    • Israeli officials acted in a way consistent with aligning judicial outcomes to U.S. preferences.

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