The Barbie film has been a huge success, already grossing $1.18 billion worldwide.
That makes it the second film of the year (after the Super Mario Bros Movie) to hit the Billon Dollar mark and Manifold users currently give it a higher than 80% chance of hitting $1.2 billion:
/SimonGrayson/will-barbie-gross-14-billion-worldw
Will it keep going and hit $1.5 billion to overtake Avengers: Age of Ultron, Frozen 2 and Top Gun: Maverick to 12th place in the all time highest grossing films list?
I will use this page at Box Office Mojo as the source. If the worldwide total hits $1.5 billion (unless there's some sort of obvious glitch on the site), this will resolve to YES. If we reach the end of the year and it hasn't hit that number, the market will resolve to NO.
Weekly progress (worldwide gross as reported by Box Office Mojo each week):
7th August - $1.030 billion
14th August - $1.184 billion
21st August - $1.279 billion
28th August - $1.340 billion
4th September - $1.381 billion
11th September - $1.403 billion
18th September - $1.417 billion
25th September - $1.427 billion
2nd October - $1.433 billion
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Barbie finished the year on $1.44 billion so this resolves NO.
More box office markets here:
/SimonGrayson/how-much-will-wonka-gross-in-cinema-f45dfc294b0f
Barbie has taken the global box office by storm by earning $1.4 billion worldwide as of September 12th. Barbie released on July 21st, 2023, and it is observed that the rate of increase at the Box office, the rate is not very high since august (it has made $1.3 billion as of August 31st and, $1.38 billion as of September 05th, $1.4 billion as of September 12th). The number of theatres where Barbie is screening globally has decreased rapidly (as it has been a while since this movie has released). So, to reach $1.5 Billion by end of 2023 will be tough in this scenario of rapidly decreasing theatres where Barbie is being shown.
I did a back of the envelope calculation some days ago (Sept 28) but forgot to post… (still in the manifold db). Anyway, it seems to be meeting the criteria below i set for my prediction for it to resolve NO, by the rate of increase decreasing by more than a million per 10 day period:
….. (from Sept 28)
From the description record of 1.417 10 days ago it has gone up to 1.4298 (an increase of about 0.13)
95 days left at an increase of 0.13 every 10 days…
1.43+(95*.013/10)=1.5535
However from week sept 11th to 18… the increase for 7 days was only 0.14, and previous to that 0.18, so the increase rate is dropping. Looking at the units of millions… we are at about 423 and need to reach 500. Looking at only the next 90 days to simplify the partial sum (13-(1.0)*(x)) for 1 to 9 is 72 ;with the remains 5 days putting it above 73 (the partial sum for decay of 0.09 puts it above 77) which means the rate of decay for increases every 10 days needs to decrease by at least 1 million per period (ie in 10 days it should be 1.4318 or less). We are not quite there yet but this also assumes that there won’t be just an abrupt stop if it stops showings once it produces less and less money (in which case this is an upper bound estimate)
Up to $1.381 billion:
$610 million domestic (up from $595 million last week)
$771 million international (up from $745 million last week)
Still dropping off at around the levels that you'd expect, so still on course to miss $1.5 billion unless there's a boost somewhere!
And here's a market for the next potentially interesting Box Office release:
@SimonGrayson Going to start streaming tonight that should hurt box office numbers further?
At a conservative pace of 0.2 billion with 16 weeks left puts it at about 1.43 billion
Another week gone and it's up to $1.340 billion;
$595 million domestic (up from $567 million last week)
$745 million international (up from $712 million last week)
It seems to be making roughly one third less each week than it made the week before. If that carries on, it could fall just short of $1.5 billion. But who knows whether there's a country that's suddenly going to find a huge cache of box office receipts they hadn't noticed before or whether there's going to be a rerelease before the end of 2023?