How much will Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom gross in cinemas? (Worldwide)
➕
Plus
23
Ṁ24k
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
YES
Over $200 million
Resolved
YES
Over $250 million
Resolved
YES
Over $350 million
Resolved
YES
Over $400 million
Resolved
YES
Over $300 million
Resolved
NO
Over $500 million
Resolved
NO
Over $450 million

Aquaman made over a billion dollars in 2018, but between the DCEU's struggles and the general lack of enthusiasm for superhero films, those days seem long gone.

The sequel, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom comes out in the US, the UK and plenty of other international markets today.

Will the overall worldwide gross surpass the figures listed here?

Resolution notes

  • The options in this market are independent of one another. So if the film grosses $275 million, the options for $200 million and $250 million will both resolve at 100% and the options for $300 million and above will resolve at 0%

  • I will consider 30th June 2024 to be the cutoff for these markets. It's pretty unlikely that this release will stay in cinemas for anywhere near that long, and any re-release after that date won't count for this market

  • BoxOffficeMojo will be used as the source of truth for this market - whatever they define as this film's gross will be how the market is resovled. Unless there is an obvious mistake or typo that is about to be corrected, whatever BOM says goes!


Other Box Office markets:

/SimonGrayson/how-much-will-wonka-gross-in-cinema-f45dfc294b0f

/SimonGrayson/how-much-will-taylor-swifts-eras-to

/SimonGrayson/will-barbie-gross-145-billion-world

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@SimonGrayson the epic saga is over, the final two can resolve NO

@SimonGrayson Aquaman left theaters last week. Reddit source, plus BoxOfficeMojo stopped listing any new grosses. Can the remaining options now resolve NO? No need to clog up the feed/lock away people's mana when this is finished.

@Ziddletwix I said in the description that I'd leave this open until 30th June, so it's not impossible that it will reopen somewhere or recognise some more international revenue at some point...

Though I agree that that's very unlikely and that I should have set an earlier date on it!

@ElenaChurilov You're the only trader with a significant YES position. Are you satisfied that this isn't going to happen and that this can be resolved (possibly with a promise from @Ziddletwix if something crazy happens and Aquaman reopens somewhere and makes another $65 million)?

howahlahsoldṀ147Over $500 million NO

@howahlah i should probs have enough spare mana atm so if you need to sell the rest i put a 2% limit order up

sold Ṁ196 Over $500 million NO

@Ziddletwix Thanks!

bought Ṁ150 Over $500 million NO

Looks like the final two can resolve NO? Announcement that Aquaman’s initial theatrical run is over https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1bercox/aquaman_2_is_tapping_out_with_1244m_domestic_210m/

@Ziddletwix (Oops forgot to ping) @SimonGrayson

bought Ṁ200 Over $500 million NO

https://collider.com/aquaman-2-global-box-office-434-million/

Collider is calling this the end of the global box office run (and it’s nowhere close to 450 or 500)

433.285M

>400M can resolve YES

450M can resolve YES

@howahlah um BoxOfficeMojo says otherwise

@mattyb Sorry I meant 400

Looks like >350M can resolve YES (although it includes estimates for the weekend, so also fine to wait a few more days).

Over $250 million

Looks like >200M and >250M can resolve?

@Ziddletwix You’re right!

Resolved those two to YES.

@SimonGrayson Thanks! Same with your Wonka market too; a couple options can be resolved. $400M can most definitely be resolved after this weekend too.

@SimonGrayson $300M can resolve YES, thanks.

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