How much will Wonka gross in cinemas? (Worldwide)
17
564
1.2k
resolved Feb 23
Resolved
YES
Over $200 million
Resolved
YES
Over $250 million
Resolved
YES
Over $400 million
Resolved
YES
Over $500 million
Resolved
YES
Over $550 million
Resolved
YES
Over $600 million
Resolved
YES
Over $300 million
Resolved
YES
Over $350 million
Resolved
YES
Over $450 million

You might not have known that you wanted a Willy Wonka origin prequel, but you're getting one anyway!

Wonka is released on 8th December in the UK and the following week in the US.

Will the overall worldwide gross surpass the figures listed here?

Resolution notes

  • The options in this market are independent of one another. So if the film grosses $275 million, the options for $200 million and $250 million will both resolve at 100% and the options for $300 million and above will resolve at 0%

  • I will consider 30th June 2024 to be the cutoff for these markets. It's pretty unlikely that this release will stay in cinemas for anywhere near that long, and any re-release after that date won't count for this market

  • BoxOffficeMojo will be used as the source of truth for this market - whatever they define as this film's gross will be how the market is resovled. Unless there is an obvious mistake or typo that is about to be corrected, whatever BOM says goes!

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Over $600 million

BoxOfficeMojo now lists >$600M

@Ziddletwix @SimonGrayson 600M can resolve YES

bought Ṁ800 Over $600 million YES

Looks like it hit 600M (though it’ll take a few days for BOM to update so no need to resolve til then)

https://x.com/BORReport/status/1759254072736321594?s=20

bought Ṁ500 of Over $550 million YES

550M can resolve YES

bought Ṁ500 of Over $550 million YES

550M can resolve YES

>500M will resolve yes (although technically this figure includes the full long weekend estimates, so also fine to wait a few days

Resolved $300m and $350m to YES

bought Ṁ250 of Over $450 million YES

@SimonGrayson Thanks! $400M and $450M can also be resolved YES

bought Ṁ100 of Over $350 million YES

Warner’s Wonka is also looking strong, with a $6.5MFriday, a 20% expected boost in family business today to $7.8M, and a 3-day of $18.8M. It would be no surprise if this movie hits $30M by the end of Christmas, which would be an amazing hold against the pic’s first four days of $43M.

Deadline

Wonka’s looking really strong against a weak Aquaman

bought Ṁ1,000 of Over $250 million YES

Resolved $200 and $250m to YES!

bought Ṁ10 of Over $600 million NO

I saw Wonka a couple of days ago and it was surprisingly good.

I went in with very low expectations and I'm also not the target market for this film, but the acting was great, the original songs were very catchy and the reused songs from Gene Wilder's version were used pretty well.

I've bet YES on the markets up to $500m and also added options for $550m and $600m in case the film turns out to have good legs over the Christmas period!

Wonka's main rival for Christmas eyeballs opens today in most regions - how will Aquaman 2 perform?

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