Taylor Swift's Eras Tour has been going since March. It's expected to be one of the biggest concert tours of all time - with every chance that it get the number one spot.

There is due to be a cinematic release of the tour in October 2023. As far as I can tell, no similar release has ever broken $100 million (the highest I've been able to find is $99 million for Justin Bieber in 2011), but the hype around this Taylor Swift releasae is enormous with news of pre-release sales being compared to Star Wars and Spiderman rather than other musical releases!

Will this release gross over $500 million at cinemas?

I'm planning to use this page at Box Office Mojo as the source (or the relevant BOM page if it doesn't stay at this URL post-release). If the worldwide total hits $500 million (unless there's some sort of obvious glitch on the site), this will resolve to YES. If we reach the end of the 2024 and it hasn't hit that number, the market will resolve to NO.

Update 13th October: Manifold have added a new market type since I created this market back in early September. I think this new type might work quite well for these box office questions!