Following a poor showing at the Iowa Caucus, Vivek Ramaswamy pulled out of the race to be the Republican nominee. This was a slight upset, Ramaswamy was seen as the second favourite to drop out next, but he was only at 15% while Hutchinson dominated the market:

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This leaves four candidates remain in the race (according to 538's definition of a major candidate). Will Hutchinson finally live up to his status as favourite? Will whichever of Haley and DeSantis is doing worse drop out? Will Trump deliver a huge shock?

Who will be next?

Resolution criteria:

• I will resolve this market to the relevant candidate when trustworthy news sources such as the BBC and the Guardian are reporting that a candidate has withdrawn from the primaries and suspended their campaign.

• If there is ambiguity as to which of the candidates has withdrawn first (eg. two candidates both say that they are dropping out of the race after the Iowa primaries and the media are not clear on which of them was technically first), the market will resolve equally to those candidates who are dropping out at the same time

Previous markets:

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