The latest iteration of the market only lasted for a few hours as Asa Hutchinson finally realised the inevitable and bowed out of the race:

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-major-candidat-fd6584a89f5d

This leaves three candidates remain in the race (according to 538's definition of a major candidate). These are the serious candidates, the presumptive nominee Donald Trump and the only two realistic alternatives to replace him if there’s a shock - Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.

Who will be the next to drop out?

Will DeSantis realise that everyone hates him? Will Haley realise that only being 95% crazy is too moderate for the Republican Party? Will Trump be visited by three ghosts who are running a few weeks late?

Resolution criteria:

• I will resolve this market to the relevant candidate when trustworthy news sources such as the BBC and the Guardian are reporting that a candidate has withdrawn from the primaries and suspended their campaign.

• If there is ambiguity as to which of the candidates has withdrawn first (eg. two candidates both say that they are dropping out of the race after the Iowa primaries and the media are not clear on which of them was technically first), the market will resolve equally to those candidates who are dropping out at the same time

Previous markets:

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-major-candidat-fd6584a89f5d

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-major-candidat-ff0b335d330a

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-major-candidat-c9dc9c2cfcb6

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-major-candidat-14ca750cb016

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-major-candidat-8c614f0639eb

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-major-candidat-77a97d930acd