With three months until the first primary votes are cast, there are nine remaining major candidates according to the criterea set out by FiveThirtyEight for inclusion in their poll tracker:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

Francis Suarez and Will Hurd were first out:

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-first-major-candida

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-major-candidat

Who will be next?

Resolution crieterea:

• I will resolve this market to the relevant candidate when trustworthy news sources such as the BBC and the Guardian are reporting that a candidate has withdrawn from the primaries and suspended their campaign.

• If there is ambiguity as to which of the candidates has withdrawn first (eg. two candidates both say that they are dropping out of the race after the Iowa primaries and the media are not clear on which of them has technically suspended their campaign first), the market will resolve equally to those candidates who are dropping out at the same time

• Only candidates listed in this market count, so if someone else rises to the point where they could also be considered major candidate and then drops out they are not included in this market. You are only predicting which of these nine candidates will be the first to drop out.