Nate Silver has left 538 but he continues to maintain his Presidential election model which attempts to put a figure on how likely each of the candidates are to win the electoral college and therefore win the election. The model is here (the actual model itself is only visible to subscribers, but the commentary is above the paywall):
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Trump was leading Biden by a wide margin but the first model to measure him against Harris gave her the lead. Trump overtook Harris at the end of August, but she regained the momentum after his woeful debate performance where he shouted about immigrants "eating dogs, eating cats, eating people's pets" and she retook the lead in the forecast today. At the time of market creation, the model gives the contenders these chances:
Harris - 51.1%
Trump - 48.6%
Will Trump regain the lead in Nate Silver's model? If so, in which month will he first regain the lead?
Resolution notes:
The primary source of truth for this market is Nate Silver's blog. Some of his content is subscriber-only, but the results of the model can usually be found in other media outlets including Nate Silver's own Twitter feed.
This market only references Silver's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average
If Nate Silver stops publishing a Harris vs Trump model for any reason (including one of the candidates withdrawing) before Trump has overtaken Harris and does not bring it back online by the time of the election, this market will resolve to the "he will not overtake her" option.
Related market - Silver's old home at 538 gives Harris a 60% chance of victory. Will Trump overtake Harris there? /SimonGrayson/when-will-trump-overtake-harris-in-tq3ucuxus2
1,000
3.00At one point this market thought there was only a 30% chance of Trump retaking the lead in Silver's model at any time before polling day, but he's slowly been chipping away at her lead for the past few days and today's update puts him at 50.2%. This market resolves to October!
Obviously this model is so close to 50/50 that we're all getting very excited by tiny, tiny statistical fluctuations. But if you want to carry on getting excited by these fluctuations, you can predict when and whether Harris will retake the lead and you can predict whether Trump will hit 55% probability here:
@SimonGrayson Will options individually resolve? (ie September resolves upon the end of the month, assuming Trump doesn't overtake)
@Kraalnaxx No - it’s a linked market so the market resolves to one answer rather than each option resolving independently.
The full model is behind a paywall here, but all readers can view Nate Silver’s daily update at the top:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
The latest forecast following today’s update (remember that this is the chance of the candidate to win the electoral college and therefore the election):
Harris 55.2%
Trump 44.6%
It’s been pretty stable in the past few days, so I can see why the market is only at 10% for Trump to overtake her in September with a few days left!
There’s also a related market on whether Harris will hit 60% before Trump overtakes her. That market is looking a lot tighter - /SimonGrayson/nate-silvers-presidential-forecast