Nate Silver has left 538 but he continues to maintain his Presidential election model which attempts to put a figure on how likely each of the candidates are to win the electoral college and therefore win the election. The model is here (the actual model itself is only visible to subscribers, but the commentary is above the paywall):

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Since the Presidential model came out, the model has shown a tight race which means entertaining swings for those of us anxiously watching the model to see whether our favoured candidate is around 45% or 55%! The main movements have been:

• Trump was leading Biden by a wide margin

• The first model measuring Trump against Harris gave Harris the lead

• Trump overtook Harris at the end of August

• Harris regained the momentum after their debate and Trump's "they're eating the dogs" outburst and retook the lead on 20th September

• Harris slowly stretched her lead out and the model gave her around a 56% chance of winning throughout late September and early October

• The momentum started shifting back towards Trump and he retook the lead today, 17th October

The model currently stands at:

Trump 50.2%

Harris 49.5%

Which of these things will happen first?

• Trump's odds of winning the election will reach 55% or higher?

• Harris will regain the lead and be favourite to win according to the model?

• Neither of these two things will happen by the time of the model's final prediction?

Resolution notes:

• The primary source of truth for this market is Nate Silver's blog. Some of his content is subscriber-only, but the results of the model can usually be found in other media outlets including Nate Silver's own Twitter feed.

• This market only references Silver's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average

• If Nate Silver stops publishing a Harris vs Trump model for any reason (including one of the candidates withdrawing) before either of these things happens and does not bring it back online by the time of the election, this market will resolve to the "neither" option.

Related market - Silver's old home at 538 gives Harris a 52% chance of victory. Will Trump overtake Harris there? /SimonGrayson/when-will-trump-overtake-harris-in-tq3ucuxus2