538 have finally brought their forecast back online:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
The forecast currently shows a lead for Harris - the model gives her a 58% chance of winning the electoral college and therefore the Presidency.
Will Donald Trump regain the lead in 538's model? If so, in which month will he first regain the lead?
Resolution notes:
The source of truth is the model at this page.
This market only references 538's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average
If 538 stops publishing a Harris vs Trump model for any reason (including one of the candidates withdrawing) before Trump has overtaken Harris and does not bring it back online by the time of the election, this market will resolve to the "he will not overtake her" option.
1,000
3.00Resolves to October!
I think there are more eyes on the Nate Silver forecast than the 538 one, so I will focus on markets about that forecast instead of making another market about the 538 forecast.
If you're interested, you can predict here:
@AaronSimansky This is a linked/dependent market rather than a group of independent markets.
So the whole market resolves to one answer rather than each individual answer resolving to YES or NO.
The benefit of this is that all of the liquidity is linked - when you bet on September you are effectively betting against every single answer so you can bet a lot more Mana without majorly moving the market!
[deleted]
Trump has overtaken Harris in Nate Silver's forecast to the surprise of this parallel market:
/SimonGrayson/when-will-trump-overtake-harris-in
Let's see how long the two forecasts disagree for!