The Labour Party led or tied in the polls for the whole of 2022 and 2023. The last time the Conservative Party led a poll was in December 2021:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Will Labour be able to maintain this streak for the whole of the run up to the general election? If they do and they win, how long will their honeymoon period last?
When will the Tories next lead a national poll?
Market notes:
If you bet on “other”, you will automatically have shares in all future months if/when they are split out in the future. I will split these out in the future if needed.
If we reach the limit of this market so that I can’t keep adding months (100 months without a Tory lead, I believe) I will set the final option as “not before xx” so that anyone who has ever bet on “other” will be paid out if it still doesn’t happen!
The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.
The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count
If the polling fieldwork is split across months, the end of the fieldwork will count for this market. So if the first poll to show a Tory lead has the fieldwork of 27th February to 1st March, the market resolves to March
If a poll is released which puts the Conservative Party level with another party (eg. Labour on 38%, Tories on 38%), that will not count as a Conservative lead even if digging into the data shows that they were ahead before rounding
In the unlikely event that the Tories are ahead of Labour but behind or tied with some third party, that also doesn’t count
Where possible I will use the table at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.