With current funding set to expire on Friday 1st March, Manifold users currently think there's something like an even chance of a US government shutdown this year with a high probability that it happens in the next few days if it does happen:
/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c
/Joshua/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-3dbf060ae324
How long will the shutdown last?
There were shutdowns which have lasted for a single day in the 1980s, but recent years have seen some longer shutdowns. The longest have been:
35 days - 2018-2019 (President Trump, Republican House)
21 days - 1995-1996 (President Clinton, Republican House)
16 days - 2013 (President Obama, Republican House)
How long will any shutdown which starts this year last?
Resolution criteria:
As with the example shutdowns mentioned above, this will count the first and last day of any government shutdown. So a shutdown which starts on 1st April and ends on 7th April will be counted as lasting for 7 day.
This includes any shutdown which starts in 2024. It is possible that a short term funding resolution is passed in time to avoid a shutdown this week but there is a US government shutdown once it lapses later this year.
This market only relates to the first US government shutdown of 2024. If there are multiple shutdowns, this will be resolved based on how quickly the first one ends.
If a shutdown begins in 2024 and rolls into 2025, this market will count the total length of that shutdown including the days in 2025.
There is an "other" option if we get into the territory of the longest ever shutdown. If there is a shutdown and it drags on, I will split out further week-long options from there and everyone who has bet on "other" will receive the same level of payout in every new option.