17
116
αΉ€1k
Dec 31
72%
No 2024 US Government Shutdown
9%
1 day
17%
2-6 days
0.4%
7-13 days
0.4%
14-20 days
0.4%
21-27 days
0.4%
28-34 days
0.4%
Other

With current funding set to expire on Friday 1st March, Manifold users currently think there's something like an even chance of a US government shutdown this year with a high probability that it happens in the next few days if it does happen:

/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c

/Joshua/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-3dbf060ae324

How long will the shutdown last?

There were shutdowns which have lasted for a single day in the 1980s, but recent years have seen some longer shutdowns. The longest have been:

  • 35 days - 2018-2019 (President Trump, Republican House)

  • 21 days - 1995-1996 (President Clinton, Republican House)

  • 16 days - 2013 (President Obama, Republican House)

How long will any shutdown which starts this year last?

Resolution criteria:

  • As with the example shutdowns mentioned above, this will count the first and last day of any government shutdown. So a shutdown which starts on 1st April and ends on 7th April will be counted as lasting for 7 day.

  • This includes any shutdown which starts in 2024. It is possible that a short term funding resolution is passed in time to avoid a shutdown this week but there is a US government shutdown once it lapses later this year.

  • This market only relates to the first US government shutdown of 2024. If there are multiple shutdowns, this will be resolved based on how quickly the first one ends.

  • If a shutdown begins in 2024 and rolls into 2025, this market will count the total length of that shutdown including the days in 2025.

  • There is an "other" option if we get into the territory of the longest ever shutdown. If there is a shutdown and it drags on, I will split out further week-long options from there and everyone who has bet on "other" will receive the same level of payout in every new option.

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