
With Musk and Trump joining forces to demand a shutdown, Manifold users think there is a reasonable chance that there will be a shutdown which begins in the final days of 2024:
/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c
/alex_apparently/will-the-us-government-shutdown-bef
How long will the shutdown last?
There were shutdowns which have lasted for a single day in the 1980s, but recent years have seen some longer shutdowns. The longest have been:
35 days - 2018-2019 (President Trump, Republican House)
21 days - 1995-1996 (President Clinton, Republican House)
16 days - 2013 (President Obama, Republican House)
How long will any shutdown which starts this year last?
Resolution criteria:
As with the example shutdowns mentioned above, this will count the first and last day of any government shutdown. So a shutdown which starts on 1st April and ends on 7th April will be counted as lasting for 7 day.
This includes any shutdown which starts in 2024.
This market only relates to the first US government shutdown of 2024. If there are multiple shutdowns, this will be resolved based on how quickly the first one ends.
If a shutdown begins in 2024 and rolls into 2025, this market will count the total length of that shutdown including the days in 2025.
There is an "other" option if we get into the territory of the longest ever shutdown. If there is a shutdown and it drags on, I will split out further week-long options from there and everyone who has bet on "other" will receive the same level of payout in every new option.
Update 2024-21-12 (PST): This market will resolve in line with other major Manifold markets about whether there is a government shutdown in 2024, particularly @/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c. The resolution of whether a specific event counts as a shutdown will match these reference markets. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-21-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A shutdown that starts and ends on the same day will resolve as 1 day
The 'other' option is intended only for shutdowns that are longer than the specified options
Update 2024-21-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - This market will resolve in line with other major Manifold markets about whether there is a government shutdown in 2024, particularly @/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c
The resolution of whether a specific event counts as a shutdown will match these reference markets
Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - The market will be resolved as Not Applicable (N/A) because the official position of Manifold indicates it is unclear whether a government shutdown occurred. (AI summary of creator comment)