With Musk and Trump joining forces to demand a shutdown, Manifold users think there is a reasonable chance that there will be a shutdown which begins in the final days of 2024:
/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c
/alex_apparently/will-the-us-government-shutdown-bef
How long will the shutdown last?
There were shutdowns which have lasted for a single day in the 1980s, but recent years have seen some longer shutdowns. The longest have been:
35 days - 2018-2019 (President Trump, Republican House)
21 days - 1995-1996 (President Clinton, Republican House)
16 days - 2013 (President Obama, Republican House)
How long will any shutdown which starts this year last?
Resolution criteria:
As with the example shutdowns mentioned above, this will count the first and last day of any government shutdown. So a shutdown which starts on 1st April and ends on 7th April will be counted as lasting for 7 day.
This includes any shutdown which starts in 2024.
This market only relates to the first US government shutdown of 2024. If there are multiple shutdowns, this will be resolved based on how quickly the first one ends.
If a shutdown begins in 2024 and rolls into 2025, this market will count the total length of that shutdown including the days in 2025.
There is an "other" option if we get into the territory of the longest ever shutdown. If there is a shutdown and it drags on, I will split out further week-long options from there and everyone who has bet on "other" will receive the same level of payout in every new option.
Update 2024-21-12 (PST): This market will resolve in line with other major Manifold markets about whether there is a government shutdown in 2024, particularly @/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c. The resolution of whether a specific event counts as a shutdown will match these reference markets. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-21-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A shutdown that starts and ends on the same day will resolve as 1 day
The 'other' option is intended only for shutdowns that are longer than the specified options
Update 2024-21-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - This market will resolve in line with other major Manifold markets about whether there is a government shutdown in 2024, particularly @/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c
The resolution of whether a specific event counts as a shutdown will match these reference markets
Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - The market will be resolved as Not Applicable (N/A) because the official position of Manifold indicates it is unclear whether a government shutdown occurred. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000People are also trading
Given the discussions and actions by Manfiold in this market, I don't think I have any choice other than to resolve this market to N/A:
/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c
I know this isn't ideal, but if the official position of Manifold is that it is unclear whether or not a shutdown took place, it's not my place to disagree and markets which people might use to arbitrage and hedge their positions need to be resolved consistently.
My intention has always been to resolve this market in line with the biggest markets on whether there is a shutdown such as /MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c
Right now it looks like there is a dispute as to whether Manifold considers what happened last night to be a shutdown (meaning that this would resolve to 1 day) or a temporary delay that doesn’t involve a shutdown (meaning that it resolves to no shutdown).
I will wait until the mods and admins have finished arguing the point about those bigger markets. And this market still has another 10 days to run in case something crazy happens!
But to reiterate, my intention would be to resolve this market in line with the other large markets unless there is a very good argument not to.
@SimonGrayson where have you stated that this was your intention? You only very recently edited the description. There are many other markets, which aren’t all small, that are resolving or going to resolve NO. This sudden reversal sounds completely ad hoc.
@NicoDelon If the view of Manifold and their admins is that there was a shutdown, it doesn’t seem like it’s my place to unilaterally resolve a market the other way. Especially if people were quite reasonably assuming that they could arbitrage these markets.
I think it’s a bit of a mess, but it’s best discussed in the comments of the most popular market rather than here:
/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c
@SimonGrayson their view is confused and completely irrelevant to what you should do. Someone made it up on the fly while on the toilet seat yesterday.
I believe the answer is other because the other market resolved yes there was a shutdown and the length of the shutdown will be a few hours, which is covered by the other category
@PaulHan The market description makes it clear that the “other” option is for longer shutdowns.
A shutdown which starts and ends on the same day resolves to “1 day”.
I haven't been on Manifold much lately, but I came back today because I was interested to see what the markets were saying about this potential upcoming shutdown...
So it was a surprise to remember that I made this market myself at the start of the year!
Musk is talking about wanting a shutdown until 20th January!