With Musk and Trump joining forces to demand a shutdown, Manifold users think there is a reasonable chance that there will be a shutdown which begins in the final days of 2024:

/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c

/alex_apparently/will-the-us-government-shutdown-bef

How long will the shutdown last?

There were shutdowns which have lasted for a single day in the 1980s, but recent years have seen some longer shutdowns. The longest have been:

• 35 days - 2018-2019 (President Trump, Republican House)

• 21 days - 1995-1996 (President Clinton, Republican House)

• 16 days - 2013 (President Obama, Republican House)

How long will any shutdown which starts this year last?

Resolution criteria:

• As with the example shutdowns mentioned above, this will count the first and last day of any government shutdown. So a shutdown which starts on 1st April and ends on 7th April will be counted as lasting for 7 day.

• This includes any shutdown which starts in 2024.

• This market only relates to the first US government shutdown of 2024. If there are multiple shutdowns, this will be resolved based on how quickly the first one ends.

• If a shutdown begins in 2024 and rolls into 2025, this market will count the total length of that shutdown including the days in 2025.

• There is an "other" option if we get into the territory of the longest ever shutdown. If there is a shutdown and it drags on, I will split out further week-long options from there and everyone who has bet on "other" will receive the same level of payout in every new option.

• Update 2024-21-12 (PST): This market will resolve in line with other major Manifold markets about whether there is a government shutdown in 2024, particularly @/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c. The resolution of whether a specific event counts as a shutdown will match these reference markets. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2024-21-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A shutdown that starts and ends on the same day will resolve as 1 day

  • The 'other' option is intended only for shutdowns that are longer than the specified options

• Update 2024-21-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - This market will resolve in line with other major Manifold markets about whether there is a government shutdown in 2024, particularly @/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c

  • The resolution of whether a specific event counts as a shutdown will match these reference markets

• Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - The market will be resolved as Not Applicable (N/A) because the official position of Manifold indicates it is unclear whether a government shutdown occurred. (AI summary of creator comment)