Some agencies of the US Government are currently funded until 1st March. If there is no agreement to fund the government in full past that date, it is likely that there will be a government shutdown.
The market currently thinks that there a roughly even chance of a shutdown in 2024 and that if there is one, it is likely to happen in the next few days:
/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c
/Joshua/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-3dbf060ae324
Legislation to fund the government needs to be passed by the House and the Senate and signed off by the President.
On which date will the necessary legislation be passed to fund the government, either to avert a shutdown or to end a shutdown?
If a shutdown starts and it looks like it's going to last a while, I will add more dates. If you have bet on "Other", you will automatically receive shares in these newly added dates!
Market resolution notes:
The most likely form of funding will be a Continuing Resolution, but any other form of funding will count. If there are multiple bills to fund the government, the market will result to the date on which the final one which is needed to avert or end a shutdown passes
Even a very short term funding bill that kicks the can down the road for a few days/weeks will count for the purposes of this market. If it's very short term and it looks like there's still likely to be a shutdown, I will resolve this market and set up a new one for further funding!
The market will resolve based on EST (GMT -5). For example, if the House and Senate pass a Continuing Resolution on 1st March and the President signs it just after midnight, the market will resolve to 2nd March. I will use Congress.gov as the source of truth for this - a page such as this page from the last time the government needed to be funded.
If there is some unusual or unexpected way of funding the government rather than a normal bill passing the House and Senate and being signed into law by the President, I will use my best judgement as to the date on which the actions were taken to fund the government.
In case there is any subjectivity to the resolution of the market, I will not trade on the market myself
Related questions
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The official Congress site has confirmed that Biden signed this bill into law on 1st March so this market can resolve!
Related market here - since this is just kicking the can down the road by a few weeks...
HR 7463 has passed the Senate.
Biden signing it is a formality but it's not yet clear whether he signed it before midnight last night or whether he still needs to sign it.
This page is the source of truth for this market - once it is updated to show the date on which Biden signed the legislation, I'll resolve the market!
@SimonGrayson I'm re-reading your resolution criteria and am trying to understand how this market will be resolved if multiple bills are passed to fund the government, as seems likely (/ necessary).
(Today congress passed HR 7463, which kicks the can down the road a couple weeks, but another bill will then need to be passed to avert shutdown.)
Two of your resolution notes seem inconsistent to me, although it may be my own misunderstanding:
If there are multiple bills to fund the government, the market will result to the date on which the final one which is needed to avert or end a shutdown passes.
Even a very short term funding bill that kicks the can down the road for a few days/weeks will count for the purposes of this market.
@snazzlePop Sorry - I'll try to be more clear!
HR 7463 averts the shutdown at least temporarily so that counts for the purposes of this market!
If there had been a bill funding some parts of the government and another bill funding other parts of the government and both were needed to prevent a government shutdown this weekend, this market would have resolved to the date when the latter passed.
Even though they'll seemingly need to pass another bill to prevent a shutdown later in the month, that's separate from this market as even a short term bill counts here!
@SimonGrayson I confused this for another market. I immediately sold my bet once I realised this is the wrong market.
Sorry!
@traders The Continuing Resolution has passed the House by 320-99.
It will now be brought before the Senate (presumably this evening?) where itโs expected to pass quickly and easily and then be signed off by Biden as a formality.
As a reminder - the market will resolve to the date on which Congress.gov says that it is signed off by the President!