Some agencies of the US Government are currently funded until 1st March. If there is no agreement to fund the government in full past that date, it is likely that there will be a government shutdown.

The market currently thinks that there a roughly even chance of a shutdown in 2024 and that if there is one, it is likely to happen in the next few days:

/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c

/Joshua/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-3dbf060ae324

Legislation to fund the government needs to be passed by the House and the Senate and signed off by the President.

On which date will the necessary legislation be passed to fund the government, either to avert a shutdown or to end a shutdown?

If a shutdown starts and it looks like it's going to last a while, I will add more dates. If you have bet on "Other", you will automatically receive shares in these newly added dates!

Market resolution notes:

• The most likely form of funding will be a Continuing Resolution, but any other form of funding will count. If there are multiple bills to fund the government, the market will result to the date on which the final one which is needed to avert or end a shutdown passes

• Even a very short term funding bill that kicks the can down the road for a few days/weeks will count for the purposes of this market. If it's very short term and it looks like there's still likely to be a shutdown, I will resolve this market and set up a new one for further funding!

• The market will resolve based on EST (GMT -5). For example, if the House and Senate pass a Continuing Resolution on 1st March and the President signs it just after midnight, the market will resolve to 2nd March. I will use Congress.gov as the source of truth for this - a page such as this page from the last time the government needed to be funded.

• If there is some unusual or unexpected way of funding the government rather than a normal bill passing the House and Senate and being signed into law by the President, I will use my best judgement as to the date on which the actions were taken to fund the government.

• In case there is any subjectivity to the resolution of the market, I will not trade on the market myself