Which coalitions will be feasible after the 2025 German Bundestag election?
Plus
9
Ṁ2814Feb 24
99%
CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens
88%
CDU/CSU + SPD
82%
CDU/CSU + AfD
77%
CDU/CSU + Greens
19%
SPD + Greens + BSW
17%
CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP
14%
SPD + Greens + FDP
9%
CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP
9%
CDU/CSU + FDP
8%
SPD + Greens + Left Party + BSW
An option resolves YES if the combination of parties holds more than 50 percent of the seats in the Bundestag after the upcoming federal election. It resolves NO if one of the parties doesn't make it into the Bundestag or if the combination of parties holds equal or less than 50 percent of the seats.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST): - The market resolves based on the feasibility of exact coalitions rather than on mathematical majorities. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@ErikCorry That's a good point. I've thought about it too. But at the end I've decided to make the market specifically about feasibility of exact coalitions rather than about mathematical majorities. Feel free to create a different market yourself.
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