@qangin The coalition scenarios are getting more and more far-fetched

@Simon74fe aggreed, greens and the AfD, in a pigs eye

@Simon74fe given the noises SPD made after the immigration vote, they won't be keen either, unless something really weird happens

@Simon74fe sorry/not sorry, I just spotted a loophole and ran with it.

@qangin Something is wrong with that Manifold bot

I'm mostly just looking at this Zeit Dashboard:

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/umfragen-bundestagswahl-neuwahl-wahltrend#tabelle-m%C3%B6gliche-koalitionen

They have a Monte-Carlo model of which coalitions will be feasible, and the one that is the most uncertain is the Union-Greens coalition.

Union + SPD + FDP majority at 5/1000??

FDP is polling around 4% currently, 1% more and they're in. How do they think this has only a 0.5% chance?

@Simon74fe apparently they seem quite convinced that the FDP won't make it. They also weight different pollsters' differently based on their past bias and performance I think. I just kinda blindly trust their authority here.

Intuitively I would agree with you, it still seems plausible for the FDP to come back a bit.

But: if anything, the FDP is on a slow downward trajectory, and I don't know what would change this. But I guess it's possible that an unexpected thing might come up.

@LudwigBald I wouldn't trust them blindly, there are a lot of bad election models out there. This one was a classic: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html

So if SPD + Greens + BSW have > 50% but the Left Part don't get in you will rate "SPD + Greens + Left Party + BSW" as a "no"? That doesn't make much sense to me.

@ErikCorry That's a good point. I've thought about it too. But at the end I've decided to make the market specifically about feasibility of exact coalitions rather than about mathematical majorities. Feel free to create a different market yourself.

@Simon74fe I think I welcome your decision, but I'm not sure I really understand your explanation. Note that the AI turned this comment into an addition to the description, and I think this reads a bit ambiguous.

Feasibility in the sense of "this can realistically happen" or "those parties reach 50%"? Like how about AfD + SPD + Greens, this is not that much different to CDU/CSU + AfD.

@Primer Yes, the AI comment can be a bit confusing. I've removed it. I was only trying to explaining why I decided to resolve an option NO if any of the parties does not enter the Bundestag.

"Feasibility" means "those parties reach >50%".