Which coalitions will be feasible after the 2025 German Bundestag election?
Which coalitions will be feasible after the 2025 German Bundestag election?
45
1.5kṀ40kresolved Feb 24
Resolved
YESCDU/CSU + SPD
Resolved
YESCDU/CSU + SPD + Greens
Resolved
YESCDU/CSU + AfD
Resolved
YESCDU/CSU + SPD + AfD
Resolved
YESCDU/CSU + AfD + SPD + Greens
Resolved
YESCDU/CSU + AfD + Greens
Resolved
NOCDU/CSU + Greens
Resolved
NOCDU/CSU + FDP
Resolved
NOSPD + Greens + FDP
Resolved
NOCDU/CSU + Greens + FDP
Resolved
NOSPD + Greens + Left Party + BSW
Resolved
NOSPD + Greens + BSW
Resolved
NOCDU/CSU + SPD + FDP
Resolved
NOSPD + Greens + Left Party
Resolved
NOCDU/CSU + SPD + BSW
An option resolves YES
- if all parties of that combination make it into the Bundestag after the upcoming federal election in Germany and the combination of parties holds more than 50 percent of the seats
An option resolves NO
- if one of the parties doesn't make it into the Bundestag or
- if the combination of parties holds equal or less than 50 percent of the seats
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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