What will be the official cause of the Prigozhin plane crash as reported by Russia after their investigation?
Pilot error
Mechanical/technical failure
Terrorist attack
Russian air defense systems
Accidental detonation of explosives due to drug or alcohol impairment
Accidental detonation of explosives for other reasons
Assassination attempt or internal dispute involving Wagner personnel


Accidental detonation of explosives due to drug or alcohol impairment

If an official post-investigation report exists, it must mention drug or alcohol impairment as a potential contributing factor. In the absence of such a report, official statements must mention it. Additionally, there must be no other cited cause for the explosion that outweighs the significance of potential substance impairment.

Assassination attempt or internal dispute involving Wagner personnel

Act of sabotage or violence specifically due to internal conflicts within or directly related to Wagner personnel. Broader political, ideological, or religious motivations would be resolved as 'Terrorist attack'.

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has the kremlin or other official russian media published a final analysis of the causes of the prigozhin airplane crash


As of now, there has been no official final analysis released by the Kremlin or other Russian state media regarding the causes of the Prigozhin airplane crash. However, let’s delve into what we do know:

What Happened?: On August 24, 2023, a private Embraer Legacy aircraft carrying ten people crashed while traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg. Russian authorities confirmed that there were no survivors1.

Passenger List: Among the passengers was Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, who had recently led a short-lived mutiny against Russia’s top brass. Other passengers included Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin and Prigozhin’s security chief Valeriy Chekalov1.

Reaction: Russian state TV downplayed the incident, dedicating only 30 seconds to the story. Telegram channels linked to the Wagner Group claimed that Prigozhin was “killed…by traitors of Russia” and a makeshift shrine appeared at the Wagner Centre in St. Petersburg1.

Possible Causes: Investigators are examining various possibilities, including “external actions”. Political analysts suggest that regardless of the actual cause, Prigozhin’s death serves as a message of retaliation and retribution to potential mutineers1.

Speculation: While some reports indicate that Prigozhin was killed in the crash, others believe it was deliberate. Western intelligence officials have suggested that an explosion onboard the plane may have caused the tragedy23.

In summary, the situation remains murky, and further investigations are needed to determine the precise cause of the crash. The Kremlin’s official stance has been to deny any involvement in the incident4.5

@Simon74fe in pulp fiction - a third of the movie follows a hitman/assassin going about his day


Russian investigators are now focusing on the theory that the jet was brought down by bombs on board, according to multiple reports.

If the report says "someone planted bombs and blew up the plane, idk who" how does this resolve?

@DanMan314 Yeah, if they don't blame anyone it will be difficult to resolve

how are you going to resolve this if no official report comes out?

(edited) Has there even been a statement that it was an accident that wasn't just putin deniably hinting at it? I don't think that's enough for a resolution.

@jacksonpolack If no final report or statement comes out I will probably resolve it as N/A. The market says "after their investigation", but according to Russian media the investigation is still ongoing.

Is it possible to resolve this question now? I think it is unlikely that anyone with authority in Kremlin will ever talk about this “accident” again.

@IonMarqvardsen Allegedly they are working an a final report. They talked about it just two weeks ago. I don't think it's that unlikely the will present something in the coming weeks/months.

@Simon74fe Thanks 😊 That was interesting. Looking forward to the final report of established facts.

Y'all are forgetting the possibility of "pilot crashed because he was too high". Grenades might have killed Prigozhin (according to Kremlin) but grenades can't really crash a plane directly.

@Shump Note that the question is not "what actually happened", it's "what will Russian investigation officially report". The latter is not so much constrained by realism; if the report says that grenades crashed the plane, that will be that.

Putin's claims make it seem like it should resolve "Accidental detonation of explosives due to drug or alcohol impairment". He says Prigozhin and co. got drunk and set of hand grenades.

@Kraalnaxx He never directly says drugs/alcohol were responsible for the explosions, that's just a loose paraphrase from the tweet I linked.

Here's a more full overview from this article:

Putin did not give any more details about how a grenade or grenades could have been detonated on board, but said he thought investigators were wrong to have not carried out alcohol and drug tests on the bodies of those who died in the crash.

"In my opinion, such an examination should have been carried out but it was not," Putin said.

He said that in searches of Wagner's offices in St Petersburg, the FSB security service had found 10 billion roubles ($100 million) in cash and 5 kg (11 pounds) of cocaine.

The investigators of the crash have yet to report publicly on the cause. Neither Wagner nor Prigozhin's family could be reached to comment on Putin's remarks.

I think it's anybody's guess at this point whether the official report/investigator statements on the crash will choose to include substance use as a contributing factor.

Putin claims Prigozhin’s plane crashed because the Wagner leadership got drunk and/or high, then set off hand grenades during the flight.

This seems like an "Other" resolution to me, assuming it becomes the official story.


“The head of the investigative committee reported to me a few days ago. Fragments of hand grenades were found in the bodies of the victims of the air disaster. There was no external impact on the plane,” Putin said during a televised conference.


@DanMan314 Since 'Other' traded so high I added a few more options

@Simon74fe It's fairly likely we'll never know for sure if it was drug or alcohol related - seemed like the drug/alcohol part was just speculation on Putin's part:

Putin did not give any more details about how a grenade or grenades could have been detonated on board, but said he thought investigators were wrong to have not carried out alcohol and drug tests on the bodies of those who died in the crash given that quantities of cocaine had been found at Wagner’s office in St Petersburg in the past.

How does this resolve if the official cause confirms the accidental explosions part, but either only alludes to drugs/alcohol without confirming or does not mention a reason for the explosives?

@DanMan314 We could resolve it based on whether or not the official report (if there is one) mentions potential drug or alcohol use?

@Simon74fe Seems reasonable to me. I think it's reasonably likely the report will at least mention Wagner leadership's past use of drugs as a potential cause, but it could go either way.

@DanMan314 I added some details to the market description to make it more clear

@Simon74fe So I guess I thought because this wasn't a free response market it wouldn't have the same bizarre dynamic of ultra specific answers appearing as soon as new information comes out. But it did anyway

@ErickBall Yeah adding responses like that mid-market feels odd. Can't wait for all the people that bought "drug or alcohol" to loose out as answers specifying whether it was vodka or champagne shows up.

@SebastianWorms That won't happen, I made sure there was no overlap with previous answers. I added new answers because 'Other' was trading very high

@Simon74fe there was at least some overlap with terrorist attack, basically we have explosives detonated in the plane after all

@Simon74fe Adding new answers is basically shafting the people who bought "others" though? And yeah, there is some more overlap.

@SebastianWorms Unless I misunderstand how Manifold handle "other" share.

@Odoacre That's why I used 'accidental' for the new options. I don't think there is any overlap with terrorist attack here. Terrorist attack won't be 'accidental'

@SebastianWorms New options are split out of 'Other', so 'Other' holders automatically get shares in the new options

@Simon74fe still sounds like at least some overlap is present. Before the split, I would have interpreted any "someone planted a bomb on the plane" kind of outcome in the terrorist attack bucket. Now I'm not sure which one it should be.

In particular the assassination attempt option is problematic, since obviously that would not have been accidental (unless you mean it accidentally became an assassination/suicide)

@Odoacre If the investigators say someone planted a bomb I won't resolve it as 'accidental detonation'

@Simon74fe would you resolve it as assassination attempt?

@Odoacre True, there could be some overlap between 'terrorist attack' and 'assassination attempt'. I added some clarification in the market description to make it more clear. Does this sound good?

@Simon74fe I think I understand the difference better now, thanks